How do Bookies Determine the Payoff Odds for a Bet?

If you want to be a gambler then you have to understand the odds when placing a bet. It doesn’t matter if you’re betting on football, baseball, boxing, or any other sport. The more you understand about odds, the more daring you can be when it comes to betting; especially accumulator bets.

Think about what it would be worth to understand how bookmakers determine the payoff odds for their bets. Well, we think that it’s time we opened the door on how they do that, and showed you how bookmakers determine their odds.

The True Value of Bookmakers’ Odds

To put it simply, a bookmaker needs to make a profit or they’ll lose their business. Instead of calculating odds that use true possibilities, a bookie will alter them a little to ensure that they continue to make their profits. There are many apps that bookie uses now a days and it’s very easy for them.  We can find the guidelines at bet365 mobile app guide – to know how mobile features and options are integrated.

Let’s say that the bookie comes up with the following odds based on the statistics, injuries, and other aspects of crafting odds:

  • Team 1 stands a 25% chance of winning
  • Team 2 stands a 55% chance of winning
  • The chances of a draw are 20%

Given that these numbers add up to 100%, it means that the bookie never makes or loses money with this. If they want to make a profit, then they have to adjust these possibilities a little, as so;

  • Team 1 stands a 32.4% chance of winning after the alteration
  • Team 2 stands a 54% chance of winning after the alternation
  • There’s now a 21.6% chance of the teams going to a draw

These three percentages add up to 108%, giving the bookmaker a profit margin of 8%. Using European decimal odds, the odds would be presented as coefficients such as:

  • 54% = 1.85
  • 4% = 3.09
  • 6% = 4.63

These odds mean that the bookie pays out 1.85, 3.09, or 4.63 times the bet depending on the end result. If a better was to split $100 by betting $50 on team 1, $30 on team 2, and $20 on a draw, then this is how it would go; A bookie would pay out $92.50 if team 1 wins, $92.70 if team 2 wins, or $92.60 if the game ends in a draw. All of this allows bookies to make a profit no matter how a gambler bets.

Bookmakers do this by balancing the real probability with the public opinion. Odds will rarely go against public opinion because it would cause gamblers to make a disproportionate number of bets on one outcome, increasing the risk of loss for both the punter and the bookie.

Balancing the Books

Remember that bookies need to balance their books and make some profit. That’s why they don’t fleece customers. They want to ensure they keep coming back to reduce their own chances of losing. Great bookies know that they won’t be able to balance the books with every game. They choose to spread the risk to manage the small changes in their profit margins.

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